Behavior
Post-Mortem Checklist for Bad Trades
Summary
Losses are useful when reviewed with structure. A repeatable checklist helps distinguish bad process from unavoidable variance.
Market Context
Recent sessions showed mixed macro signals and abrupt short-covering rallies. Conviction quality dropped as narrative swings accelerated.
The Thesis
Create a repeatable review framework after underperforming sequences so process quality can be measured independently from outcome quality.
Trade Structure (Paper)
Reviews focus on directional outcomes, structure assumptions, and risk controls. No exact entries, timestamps, or actionable execution details are provided.
What Happened
Most underperformance clustered around sizing decisions in average setups, rather than from thesis quality alone.
Post-Mortem
Key prompts: Was the thesis explicit? Was invalidation defined before entry? Was size appropriate for variance? Was execution aligned with plan?
Behavioral Notes
Certainty was the most expensive bias. Probabilistic framing improved consistency and reduced reactive overtrading.
FAQ
What is the goal of a post-mortem?
The goal is to identify which assumptions failed and what should be changed in process, sizing, or structure.
Should every losing trade trigger strategy changes?
No. One loss can be noise. Post-mortems should focus on patterns across multiple outcomes.